THE PATH TO
THE RUSSIAN INVASION
OF UKRAINE
HOW WE GOT HERE
In early 2022, the US Intelligence Community issued their Annual Worldwide Assessment of Threats to the United States.
"Russia continues to prepare for a military attack against Ukraine,
with well over 100,000 troops massed near the Ukraine border,
including Russian military forces in Belarus, occupied-Crimea,
and the separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine.
Moscow is sending more forces.
In mid-December 2021, Russia issued a statement
demanding that NATO provide formal security guarantees,
including putting an end to the possibility that Ukraine might join the Alliance.
We assess that Moscow will continue to employ an array of tools to advance its own interests or undermine the interests of the United States and its allies. These will be primarily military, security, and intelligence tools, with economic cooperation playing a smaller role. We expect Moscow to insert itself into crises when Russia’s interests are at stake, the anticipated costs of action are low, or it sees an opportunity to capitalize on a power vacuum. Russia probably will continue to expand its global military, intelligence, security, commercial, and energy footprint and build partnerships aimed at undermining U.S. influence and boosting its own....
....Russia has used corruption to help develop networks of patronage in countries, including Hungary,
Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Ukraine, to influence decisionmaking, and help carry out Russia’s foreign
policy objectives.....
The Worldwide Assessment of Threats to the United States Report went on to say:
" ......We expect Moscow to sustain military modernization and enhance its armed forces, enabling it to defend Russia’s
national security while projecting influence globally and challenging the interests of the United States and its allies.
Despite slow growth in defense spending, Russia will emphasize the development and acquisition of new
weapons that present increased threats to the United States and regional actors while continuing its foreign
military engagements, conducting training exercises, and incorporating lessons from its involvement in
conflicts in Syria and Ukraine.......
...Russia presents one of the most serious foreign influence threats to the United States, using its intelligence services,
proxies, and wide-ranging influence tools to try to divide Western alliances, and increase its sway around the world,
while attempting to undermine U.S. global standing, amplify discord inside the United States, and influence U.S.
voters and decisionmaking. We assess that Moscow probably will build on these approaches to try to
undermine the United States as opportunities arise—Russia and its influence actors are adept at capitalizing
on current events in the United States to push Moscow-friendly positions to Western audiences.
Moscow almost certainly views U.S. elections as opportunities for malign influence as part of its larger
foreign policy strategy. Moscow has conducted influence operations against U.S. elections for decades,
including as recently as the 2020 presidential election.
We assess that it probably will try to strengthen
ties to U.S. persons in the media and politics in hopes of developing vectors for future influence
operations. Moscow almost certainly will continue these online influence operations in the United
States and in countries such as Belarus, Ukraine, and other countries of key Russian interest.
Moscow will also continue and seek out new methods
of circumventing technology companies' anti-disinformation activities
to further expand its narratives globally.."
THE FORESHADOWING OF WAR
"I was in Eastern Europe in 1989, reporting on the revolutions that overthrew the ossified communist dictatorships that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was a time of hope. NATO, with the breakup of the Soviet empire, became obsolete. President Mikhail Gorbachev reached out to Washington and Europe to build a new security pact that would include Russia. Secretary of State James Baker in the Reagan administration, along with the West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher, assured the Soviet leader that if Germany was unified NATO would not be extended beyond the new borders. The commitment not to expand NATO, also made by Great Britain and France, appeared to herald a new global order. We saw the peace dividend dangled before us, the promise that the massive expenditures on weapons that characterized the Cold War would be converted into expenditures on social programs and infrastructures that had long been neglected to feed the insatiable appetite of the military.
There was a near universal understanding among diplomats and political leaders at the time that any attempt to expand NATO was foolish, an unwarranted provocation against Russia that would obliterate the ties and bonds that happily emerged at the end of the Cold War.
How naive we were.....
The conflict in Ukraine echoes the novel “Chronicle of a Death Foretold” by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. In the novel, it is acknowledged by the narrator that “there had never been a death more foretold” and yet no one was able or willing to stop it. All of us who reported from Eastern Europe in 1989 knew the consequences of provoking Russia, and yet few have raised their voices to halt the madness. The methodical steps towards war took on a life of their own, moving us like sleepwalkers towards disaster."
.............in 2014, the U.S. backed a coup against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych who sought to build an economic alliance with Russia rather than the European Union. Of course, once integrated into the European Union, as seen in the rest of Eastern Europe, the next step is integration into NATO. Russia, spooked by the coup, alarmed at the overtures by the EU and NATO, then annexed Crimea, largely populated by Russian speakers. And the death spiral that led us to the conflict currently underway in Ukraine became unstoppable.
I don’t know where this will end up. We must remember, as Putin reminded us, that Russia is a nuclear power. We must remember that once you open the Pandora’s box of war it unleashes dark and murderous forces no one can control. I know this from personal experience. The match has been lit.
Russia, Ukraine and the Chronicle of a War Foretold
by Chris Hedges
February 25th, 2022
"This is 20 years building. But it was a slow creep until you get to the Trump administration, and there's a big lurch forward. ............ We’ve lurched toward confrontation because we weren’t pushing back on Russian aggression. We lurched under Trump. Without that lurch, we would still have maybe that opportunity to avert this catastrophe. And it’s not a catastrophe simply for Ukraine; it’s a catastrophe for our Euro-Atlantic alliance and for a rules-based order......
.......I was coordinating a policy of support for Ukraine [in 2019]. It was a new government; the Zelenzskyy government won in a landslide, under a mandate to further integrate with the West. And the entire U.S. government apparatus, recognizing that we had this looming threat of Russia, decided that it was appropriate to invest in the relationship with Ukraine. ............
......Based on Trump’s temperature toward Ukraine, I think Vladimir Putin believed that in a second Trump term [Putin] could have just waltzed in, NATO potentially would have been destroyed, and Ukraine would have been handed [to Russia] on a silver platter........But look at the timing of when this [Russian military] buildup first started. It started in the spring of 2021, just weeks after the [Jan. 6 Capitol] insurrection. Donald Trump didn’t recede into the history books, he didn’t go into quiet retirement. He continued to perpetuate this big lie and sow discord, and Vladimir Putin saw an opportunity in that.......
...Trump is the megaphone, but it’s Tucker Carlson playing on Russian airwaves. It’s Mike Pompeo cheerleading for Putin. It's these folks that suggest that there's a division not just within the American public but within the elites. That firm resolve for the traditional Republican Party about staking out a strong position on national security [in opposing Russia] isn't there.....
......There have been other conflicts, but we haven't had this kind of massive military offensive in Europe, which is the bedrock, the core of our vital interests. It's the combined power of the U.S. and NATO together that really keep the world on some sort of peaceful trajectory. President Putin's own rhetoric suggests his wandering eyes will look toward Moldova and Georgia and Finland."
Retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman,
Former Director of European Affairs and
a member of Donald Trump’s National Security Council
"Because a lot of us thought that Putin would never invade because he would immediately lose the support of the Russian population, that they would never support a war, and particularly not such a bloody, vicious war against Ukrainians, who are in many ways similar to Russians and have a mutually comprehensible language, a long history together. The Russian people feel some form of affection for Ukraine and some connection to it."
Robert Orttung
Elliott School of International Affairs Professor
George Washington University
But this whole thing is a farce. As I see it, here is the Ukraine crisis in a nutshell:
Biden to Putin: “Don’t invade Ukraine.”
Putin to Biden: “We have no intention of invading Ukraine.”
Biden to the US media: “Putin is about to invade Ukraine!”
Then Biden’s top officials proceed to embarrass themselves by warning that the invasion was imminent. ...... Meanwhile “US intelligence” continues to leak incendiary information – likely self-serving – to a US media that has lost any interest in skepticism toward any “scoop” handed down by US government officials.
What the US media will not report is that this entire crisis – and the threat of a serious war – has all been brought about by US interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine,.....
Ron Paul
Republican Senator
Feb 17, 2022
(one week before Russia Invaded Ukraine)
THE PATH TO WAR
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has continued to harbor significant resentment against Independent Ukraine, the country it still thinks of as a critical part of ‘Mother Russia’. It therefore considers the conquest of Ukraine as being vital for the restoration of its so-called “Historical Russia.
Having declared Independence in 1991, Ukraine has irrevocably chosen a completely different path – an independent path of democratic development, reform and European integration. In contrast, the Kremlin has decided to go the way of conservation and groundless aspiration to restore its empire.
It seems that the core values and DNA of Ukrainian society – a love of freedom, democracy, free thinking and European values – are values that are anathema to Putin; he can neither comprehend, nor tolerate, these values – and so instead he is seeking to destroy them.
Putin’s numerous attempts to falsely present Russia as the “victim defending itself from an ‘aggressive’ West”, NATO’s expansion or “radical Nazis killing Russian speaking citizens” are nonsensical and serve as a tool of reflective control in order to cover up Putin’s own aggressive ambitions”.
----- Ukrainian Government Website
Many believe that Putin has been working behind the scenes for a number of years to install Pro-Russian leaders in various countries around the globe. Working behind the scenes, Russia lauched various cyber efforts to influence foreign elections. His desire for a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine has been something he's worked tirelessly far. Some believe that he has chose Ukrainian opposition leader Yevhen Murayev, as his pick to be the new leader of a Russian-controlled Ukraine if Putin is successful in destroying the current government of Ukraine via war. Murayev is seen as strongly anti-Nato and anti-Europe. As support for current Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, continued to remain strong, the possibility of regime change without war waned.
From early 2021, there was a Russian military buildup around Ukraine's borders. The US and others accused Russia of planning an invasion, but Russian officials repeatedly issued denials. In September 2021, Ukraine conducted military exercises with NATO forces. The Kremlin warned that NATO expanding military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross "red lines" for Putin. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied allegations that Russia was preparing for a possible invasion of Ukraine.
On 30 November 2021, Putin stated that an expansion of NATO's presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Russian cities or missile defence systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a "red line" issue for the Kremlin. Putin asked President Joe Biden for legal guarantees that NATO wouldn't expand eastward or put "weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory." The U.S. and NATO have rejected Putin's demands.
The Kremlin repeatedly denied that it had any plans to invade Ukraine. Putin dismissed such fears as "alarmist".
In January of 2022 the threat appeared imminent and several diplomatic efforts were undertaken to stave off the potential of a major war should Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine. Leaders of various global nations called and/or met with Putin in hopes of dissuading him from carrying out his threats.
President Joe Biden cast a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine in stark historical terms Tuesday, saying, “it would be the largest invasion since World War II... It would change the world,” said Biden, if the tens of thousands of Russian troops who have been amassing on the Russian-Ukrainian border were to launch an incursion into Ukrainian territory. Biden’s remarks reflect a growing consensus among experts that any conflict in Ukraine is unlikely to be confined to a small area or a short window of time, and that its effects will ripple through Europe and beyond.
Biden says a Russian invasion of Ukraine ‘would change the world’,
Kristina Wilkies, CNBC, January 25 2022
The Ukraine crisis is the classic case of a known unknown: We know that we don't know what Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to do as he amasses troops on the Ukrainian border. So how imminent is the threat of a full-scale war? Some fears appear to have receded slightly following key talks that included Russian and Ukrainian officials. But the Pentagon also says the Russian troop buildup continues, and President Joe Biden told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on a call Thursday that there was a distinct possibility Russia could launch an invasion in February, according to National Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne. Zelensky, however, restated his position that the threat from Russia remains "dangerous but ambiguous," and it is not certain that an attack will take place, a senior Ukrainian official told CNN. Diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis continue.
Ukraine-Russia crisis: How soon might a war be and what would it look like?
Laura Smith-Spark, CNN, January 31, 2022
By early February hope of avoiding a war dwindled as Putin continued to amass troops; to amass troops not only along his own border with Ukraine, but also in the nation of Belarus to the north of Ukraine and in the Crimean Peninsula to the south of Ukraine.
On February 7, 2022, Putin said at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron that "A number of [Macron's] ideas, proposals ... are possible as a basis for further steps. We will do everything to find compromises that suit everyone."
Do you realize that if Ukraine joins NATO and decides to take Crimea back through military means, the European countries will automatically get drawn into a military conflict with Russia? Of course, NATO’s united potential and that of Russia are incomparable. We understand that, but we also understand that Russia is one of the world’s leading nuclear powers, and is superior to many of those countries in terms of the number of modern nuclear force components. But there will be no winners, and you will find yourself drawn into this conflict against your will.
Vladimir Putin press conference with President of France Micron on February 8, 2022, quoted in
Putin Asks: Does NATO Really Want To Fight Nuclear Power Russia?
The International Schiller Institute, (February 9, 2022)
President Joe Biden told Russia’s Vladimir Putin that invading Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering” and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but “equally prepared for other scenarios,” the White House said Saturday. It offered no suggestion that the hourlong call diminished the threat of an imminent war in Europe. Biden also said the United States and its allies would respond “decisively and impose swift and severe costs” if the Kremlin attacked its neighbor, according to the White House. The two presidents spoke a day after Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that U.S. intelligence shows a Russian invasion could begin within days and before the Winter Olympics in Beijing end on Feb. 20. Russia denies it intends to invade but has massed well over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and has sent troops to exercises in neighboring Belarus, encircling Ukraine on three sides.
Biden warns Putin of ‘severe costs’ of Ukraine invasion,
AP News, February 13, 2022
By Mid-Feburary, United States officials indicated that it appeared the invasion could begin at any moment.
In the weeks leading up to war, there was in increase in frequency of accusations by the Russian president Vladimir Putin of crimes against humanity and genocide, allegedly committed by the Ukrainian government in the Donbas region of Ukraine, along the border with Russia. Russian propaganda regularly presents the elected leaders of Ukraine as Nazis and fascists oppressing the local ethnic Russian population, which it claims needs to be liberated.
On February 15 the Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, backed a resolution calling for diplomatic recognition of two self-proclaimed separatist republics in Donbas within Ukraine .
On February 21, Putin signed a decree recognizing the separatist republics as independent states.
THE LEADERS SPEAK ON THE EVE OF WAR
On February 24, Ukrainian President Zelenskly made a video directed at the people of Russia. It is uncertain whether they were ever able to view it.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
On 24 February, Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine, launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
“Today I initiated a phone call with the president of the Russian federation. The result was silence. Though the silence should be in Donbass. That’s why I want to address today the people of Russia. I am addressing you not as a president, I am addressing you as a citizen of Ukraine. More than 2,000 km of the common border is dividing us. Along this border your troops are stationed, almost 200,000 soldiers, thousands of military vehicles. Your leaders approved them to make a step forward, to the territory of another country. And this step can be the beginning of a big war on European continent.
We know for sure that we don’t need the war. Not a Cold War, not a hot war. Not a hybrid one. But if we’ll be attacked by the [enemy] troops, if they try to take our country away from us, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, we will defend ourselves. Not attack, but defend ourselves. And when you will be attacking us, you will see our faces, not our backs, but our faces.
The war is a big disaster, and this disaster has a high price. With every meaning of this word. People lose money, reputation, quality of life, they lose freedom. But the main thing is that people lose their loved ones, they lose themselves.
They told you that Ukraine is posing a threat to Russia. It was not the case in the past, not in the present, it’s not going to be in the future. You are demanding security guarantees from NATO, but we also demand security guarantees. Security for Ukraine from you, from Russia and other guarantees of the Budapest memorandum.
But our main goal is peace in Ukraine and the safety of our people, Ukrainians. For that we are ready to have talks with anybody, including you, in any format, on any platform. The war will deprive [security] guarantees from everybody — nobody will have guarantees of security anymore. Who will suffer the most from it? The people. Who doesn’t want it the most? The people! Who can stop it? The people. But are there those people among you? I am sure.
I know that they [the Russian state] won’t show my address on Russian TV, but Russian people have to see it. They need to know the truth, and the truth is that it is time to stop now, before it is too late. And if the Russian leaders don’t want to sit with us behind the table for the sake of peace, maybe they will sit behind the table with you. Do Russians want the war? I would like to know the answer. But the answer depends only on you, citizens of the Russian Federation.”
Today, I again consider it necessary to come back to the tragic events taking place in the Donbas and the key issue of ensuring Russian security. Let me start with what I said in my address of February 21. I am referring to what causes us particular concern and anxiety – those fundamental threats against our country that year after year, step by step, are offensively and unceremoniously created by irresponsible politicians in the West.
“I am referring to the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders. It is well known that for 30 years we have persistently and patiently tried to reach an agreement with the leading NATO countries on the principles of equal and inviolable security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we constantly faced either cynical deception and lies, or attempts to pressure and blackmail, while NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, continued to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and, I repeat, it is coming close to our borders.......
..........As NATO expands to the east, with every passing year, the situation for our country is getting worse and more dangerous. Moreover, in recent days the leadership of NATO has been openly talking about the need to speed up, force the advancement of the alliance’s infrastructure to the borders of Russia. In other words, they are doubling down on their position. We can no longer just watch what is happening. It would be absolutely irresponsible on our part.
Further expansion of the NATO infrastructure and the beginning of military development in Ukraine’s territories are unacceptable for us. The problem, of course, is not NATO itself – it is only an instrument of US foreign policy. The problem is that in the territories adjacent to us – territories that were historically ours, I emphasise – an “anti-Russia” hostile to us is being created, placed under full external control; [it] is intensively settled by the armed forces of NATO countries and is supplied with the most modern weapons.........
........As I said in my previous address, one cannot look at what is happening there without compassion. It is simply not possible to stand all this any more. It is necessary to immediately stop this nightmare – the genocide against the millions of people living there, who rely only on Russia, only on us. These aspirations, feelings, pain of people are the main motivation for us to take the decision to recognise the people’s republics of Donbas.
“What I think is important to emphasise further is that the leading NATO countries, in order to achieve their own goals, support extreme nationalists and Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, who, in turn, will never forgive the Crimeans and Sevastopol residents for choosing reunification with Russia.
“They, of course, will crawl into the Crimea, just like in the Donbas, in order to kill, just as the gangs of Ukrainian nationalists, Hitler’s accomplices, killed defenceless people during the Great Patriotic War. They openly lay claim to a number of other Russian territories.
We have been left no other option to protect Russia and our people, but for the one that we will be forced to use today. The situation requires us to take decisive and immediate action. The people’s republics of Donbas turned to Russia with a request for help.
“In this regard, in accordance with Article 51 of Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the approval of the Federation Council of Russia and in pursuance of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance ratified by the Duma on February 22 with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, I decided to launch a special military operation.
“Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the regime in Kyiv for eight years. And for this we will pursue the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation......
“..........In this regard, I appeal to the citizens of Ukraine. In 2014, Russia was obliged to protect the residents of Crimea and Sevastopol from those whom you, yourself call “Nazis”. Crimeans and Sevastopol residents made their choice to be with their historical homeland, with Russia, and we supported this. I repeat, we simply could not do otherwise.
“What is happening today does not come out of a desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. It is related to the protection of Russia itself from those who took Ukraine hostage and are trying to use it against our country and its people.......
.......Now a few important, very important words for those who may be tempted to intervene in the ongoing events. Whoever tries to hinder us, or threaten our country or our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any turn of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard.”
THE LAUNCH OF THE WAR
On 24 February, Putin announced that he had made the decision to launch a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine. In his address, Putin stated there were no plans to occupy Ukrainian territory and that he supported the right of the peoples of Ukraine to self-determination. He said the purpose of the "operation" was to "protect the people" in the predominantly Russian-speaking region of Donbas who, according to Putin, "for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime". Putin also stated that Russia sought the "demilitarisation and denazification" of Ukraine.
Within minutes of Putin's announcement, explosions were reported in various cities throughout Ukraine including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, in addition to the Donbas.
"What nearly everyone thought was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bluff has turned into a full-scale war with thousands of casualties among civilians and military. The invasion started with Russian troops entering the Donbas breakaway territories that share a border with Russia. After Russia’s equivalent of a parliament, the Duma, passed a decree recognizing the republics, Putin officially recognized the republics as independent. That gave Russia carte blanche to send Russian “peacekeeping” troops to the breakaway territories, where most of the population is ethnically Russian. Now that Putin’s assault on Ukraine has turned into a full-scale invasion, it’s obvious that protecting Russian-speaking citizens in the Donbas region was nothing less than a pretext to declare war against all of Ukraine"
Victoria Dmitrieva
Russian Journalist and Writer
Born in Moscow, now living in the US.
DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE FACTORS BEHIND PUTIN'S WAR ON UKRAINE
Global media sources have given extensive coverage to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and what led up to the war.
Much has been said and written concerning Putin's paranoia over Ukraine eventually joining NATO..... and rightfully so.
An equally important but less discussed factor leading to war, is a factor present in many global conflicts throughout history:
Control of (and Access to) Water, Oil, and Gas Resources and
the Financial Benefits Associated With That Control and Access
Why is Ukraine such an important geopolitical pivot point?
Why is a free and independent Ukraine such a significant perceived threat to Vladimir Putin?
Why did Putin invade and capture the Crimean Peninsula in 2014?
Why does Ukraine want to regain control of the Crimean Peninsula?
Why does Ukraine fear having Russia expand control of the territories along Ukraine's southern coast, rendering Ukraine a land-locked country with no access to the Sea of Azov, and more importantly no access to the Black Sea?
Why is control of the Black Sea extremely important to Russia?
Why did Putin focus on taking control cities along the southern Dnieper River in early days of the war?
Why was Putin concerned over the increasing interest shown to Ukraine by major oil companies in the United States?
Why does Putin consider it essential to have a pro-Russian leader in charge of Ukraine?
These are only a few pertinent questions regarding the reasons Vladimir Putin invaded the nation of Ukraine.
As is often the case, to explore the "story behind the story you have to ... Follow The Money !!!!"
Eye On Ukraine is interested in providing information on the history of Ukraine and it's people and information on the status of the Russian War on Ukraine. But we are also interested in exploring the causes of the war and the complex and evolving relationships between countries in Eastern Europe and how all of this impacts the "global chessboard". There is always more than meets the eye and that's certainly the case here.
In the days and weeks to come, Eye On Ukraine will explore the questions above and other questions related to Ukraine and Russia.
Sophia Square in Kyiv, the capital city of Ukraine (prior to the Russian Invasion)