STATUS UPDATE ON
THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINE
WAR
~~~ The War on Ukraine is into it's fouth week ~~~
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has abruptly transformed the world.
Over Two million people have already fled.
A new Iron Curtain is grinding into place.
The Russian assault on cities throughout Ukraine
has brought about much death and destruction.
Putin's War on Ukraine wages on throughout Ukraine. Ukrainian forces and citizens have been able to retain some level of ground control of most, but not all, of their largest cities and urban areas. Russian ground forces have stalled and are unable to make much further progress over the past several days. However Russians bombing and artillery campaigns have destroyed large portions of commercial and residential areas of cities throughout the country. The cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol have suffered extensive damage and remain under heavy attack via the air.
Putin's attempts to weaken NATO and creative divisions among his enemies throughout the world have failed. Over the past 24 months, the strength of unity of NATO has increased. Over the past month, this strength and unity has increased dramatically.
The siege and destruction of Ukrainian cities is an attempt to destroy the morale and will of the Ukrainian people. The resolve of the people of Ukraine to be a free and independent nation has been strengthened by the Russian invasion. Putin's war, aimed at reunifying what he sees as two parts of the Russian nation, is already having the opposite effect - strengthening the will of most Ukrainians to seek a destiny free from Russian domination.
The people of Ukraine have vowed that they will never surrender, never give in, never give up their desire for freedom and their desire to remain in independent and sovereign nation.
Global media sources have given extensive coverage to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and what led up to the war.
Much has been said and written concerning Putin's paranoia over Ukraine eventually joining NATO.
An equally important but less discussed factor leading to war, is a factor present in many global conflicts throughout history:
Control of and Access to
Water, Oil, and Gas resources
and the financial benefits that brings.
KEY BATTLEFRONTS
The map above shows the major areas which Russia has attacked during the first month of the war. While they met measured success during the 1st week of the invasion, the progress of the ground invasion quickly stalled. Russian forces have dug into positions on the outskirts of targeted cities but have met only limited success in having their military ground forces take control within the cities. However, Russia has been very successful in aerial bombing campaigns to destroy buildings and terrorize residents. of these areas.
The map below shows the areas where Russian ground forces have taken control within Ukraine. Most of these areas (shown in red) are very close to the borders of Russia, Belarus, and the Sea of Azoz. The areas with dark red slashes are areas that Russia has already had a military presence since 2014.
The areas circled in blue are the key cities under attack. With the exceptions of Mariupol and Kherson, most of the key urban battle fronts remain under Ukrainian ground control, even though their infrastructure, homes, and buildings are being destroyed by continued aerial bombing.
The dotted red lines show movement by Russian ground troops. These movements are under constant counter-attack by Ukrainian forces which have prevented Russian troops for gaining control or occupying the areas.
Note that Russian ground troops have penetrated the region around Kyiv but have not gained any control of that area nor have they been able to occupy those areas without sustaining heavy damage from Ukrainian counter-attacks.
Mariupol Destroyed
The situation in Mariupol is especially dire. The city has been under blockade for 16 days now, more than 350,000 Mariupol residents continue to hide in shelters and basements from continuous shelling by Russian occupation forces. Food and medicine are scarce... and growing scarcer. On average, 50 to 100 air bombs are dropped on the city per day. The destruction is enormous, according to preliminary estimates, about 80% of the city’s housing stock is destroyed.
Those who have made it out of Mariupol told of a devastated city. “Mariupol is almost 99% destroyed,” said 39-year-old Viktoria Totsen, who managed to escape the city and cross into Poland. “They bombed us for the past 20 days. During the last five days the planes were flying over us every five seconds and dropped bombs everywhere — on residential buildings, kindergartens, art schools, everywhere.”
Ukraine has vowed to defend the city down to the last soldier. It may well come to that. Russian troops are slowly pushing into the centre and, in the absence of any kind of workable peace deal, Russia is now likely to intensify its bombardment - drawing little if any distinction between its armed defenders and the beleaguered civilian population which still numbers over 200,000.
Mariupol would be the first major city to fall to the Russians after Kherson, a strategically much less important city that was barely defended. Mariupol has long-been a strategically important port on the Sea of Azov, part of the Black Sea. With its deep berths, it is the biggest port in the Azov Sea region and home to a major iron and steel works. In normal times, Mariupol is a key export hub for Ukraine's steel, coal and corn going to customers in the Middle East and beyond.
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Kyiv Defense Holds
Kyiv remains fully under control of Ukraine. Russia ground troops reached the suburbs and outlying areas of Kyiv in a matter of days but their incursions stalled.
The red slashed areas show locations occupied by the Russian military and this map hasn't changed much in the past two to three weeks.
Fierce battles continue in Irpin to the west of Kyiv with much destruction and loss of life.
Battles continue in the Brovary area east of Kyiv but the Russian military has not been able to capture that city nor advance closer to Kyiv.
The Russian air bombardment of Kyiv continues.
Russian Seiges Stalled
War efforts seldom go as planned. Based on their past success in Georgia, Chechnya, and the Crimean Peninsula, Russia had hoped to capture the major cities of Ukraine in a matter of days and force the Ukrainian government leaders to surrender, leading to the installation of a new pro-Russian government in Ukraine. The initial Russian successes in capturing villages, towns, and cities in southeastern Ukraine created new and unplanned challenges for the Russian military. The Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian residents of the occupied areas fought back. They refused to give in, refused to surrender, refused to give up.
The protracted occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory continues to require additional Russian military manpower and military resources. The Russian need to defend their occupied areas reduces the availability of military resources for further offensive efforts on other Ukrainian fronts, such as Kyiv and Odessa. Thus the Russian ground assaults have stalled, leading to an increased dependence on aerial bombing and long-range missiles. Russia has sought to entice foreign mercenaries to join their cause and come to the battle front to assist the Russian troops on the ground.
Total combat losses of russian aggressors in Ukraine from 24 Feb to 22 Mar (approximation): 15300 troops; 559 tanks; 1556 armored vehicles; 252 artillery systems; 80 rocket systems; 45 anti-air systems; 99 aircraft; 123 helicopters; 1000 military auto vehicles; 3 military boats; 70 fuel tanks; 35 tactical UAVs, 15 objects of special equipment. – General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukraine Military Fights to Reclaim Control of Key Towns and Cities
Ukrainians forces have now been trying to take back territory in the last few days that the Russians had gained, according to a senior US defense official, calling them “able and willing” to do so. The official cited the examples of Ukrainians fighting to take back Kherson, as well as pushing Russian forces from the northeast of Mykolaiv to have to reposition south of the city. Ukraine's forces said a counterattack north and west of Kyiv appears to have made some headway, and they regained control of Makariv, a town west of the capital of Kyiv. Oleksandr Markushyn, mayor of the Kyiv suburb of Irpin, said the Ukrainian armed forces, territorial defense and police "have 80% of our city under control."
Negotiations Stalled
Talks to end the fighting have continued but failed to bridge the chasm between the two sides. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that he would be prepared to consider waiving any bid by Ukraine to join NATO — a key Russian demand — in exchange for a cease-fire, the withdrawal of Russian troops and a guarantee of Ukraine’s security. Zelenskyy also suggested Kyiv would be open to future discussions on the status of Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014, and areas of the eastern Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists. Meanwhile Russia has stepped up it's bombing campaign on the major cities, destroying homes, apartment buildings, and municipal facilities. Ukrainians continue to flee the bombarded cities, seeking shelter and safety in other areas of Ukraine and in foreign countries. Overall, more than 3.5 million people have fled Ukraine, while another 6.5 million have been displaced inside the country.'
NATO To Increase Troops In Eastern Europe
Nato has announced it will double its troops along the alliance’s eastern flank. “The first step is the deployment of four new Nato battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, along with our existing forces in the Baltic countries and Poland,” said the alliance’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg.
Latest Updates
In the libraries of the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions, the seizure of Ukrainian historical and fiction literature, which does not coincide with the postulates of Kremlin propaganda, has begun. For this purpose, Russian units of the “military police” were involved. The police are most interested in books on the history of Ukrainian Maidans, Anti-Terrorist Operation and Joint Forces Operation, and the history of Ukrainian liberation struggles.
Western officials have said that both the Ukrainians and the Russians are running short of weapons as the conflict grinds on due to Ukrainian defence that was far better than expected – and that they had anticipated they would be supporting a smaller Ukrainian insurgency by this stage. The UK will double the number of missiles it sends to Ukraine and urge western allies to step up provisions of lethal aid to the country, as the Russian invasion turns into a prolonged war of attrition.
Russia attacks Mariupol-bound convoy: A convoy of 11 empty buses driving towards the besieged city of Mariupol to rescue fleeing Ukrainians was commandeered by Russian forces, according to the Ukrainian government. The Russians have driven the buses, along with their original drivers and several emergency services workers, to an undisclosed location, the government says.
Explosions and bursts of gunfire shook Kyiv, and black smoke rose from a spot in the north. Intensified artillery fire could be heard from the northwest, where Russia has sought to encircle and capture several suburban areas of the capital, a crucial target. Kyiv sesidents sheltered at home or underground under a 35-hour curfew imposed by city authorities. Ukrainian troops drove Russian forces out of the Kyiv suburb of Makariv after a fierce battle, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said. The regained territory allowed Ukrainian forces to retake control of a key highway and block Russian troops from surrounding Kyiv from the northwest.
Still, the Defense Ministry said Russian forces were able to partially take other northwest suburbs, Bucha, Hostomel and Irpin, some of which had been under attack almost since Russia’s military invaded almost a month ago.
Since February 24, the beginning of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, about 3,780 residential buildings have been partially damaged, and 651 houses have been destroyed – Roman Prymush, Deputy Head of the State Emergency Service
The city of Chernihiv is on the verge of collapse. Half the population has left, the remaining 130 thousand are predominantly sick, elderly or unable to fully care for themselves. The suburbs have been fully destroyed by Russian shelling, the city has no electricity or water. Repairs and logistics are nearly impossible due to Russian artillery strikes. – Commissioner for Human Rights of the Parliament of Ukraine.
On 21 March, Russian occupiers took hostage Olena Plaksina, member of the town council in temporarily occupied Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia region). – Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration. This continues the trend of Russian invaders kidnapping local town leaders in attempts to install illegitimate puppet leadership controlled by Kremlin.
The Ukrainian authorities have rejected a proposal from Russia that their forces surrender Mariupol and lay down their arms, in exchange for safe passage out of the city. The Ukrainian side responded by demanding that Russia immediately open a humanitarian corridor for civilian evacuations. Russian aviation dropped 2 heavy “super bombs” on Mariupol, making it clear that the goal is complete destruction of the city and mass deaths among its population.
Russian forces were purposefully hunting international journalists in Mariupol. They had a list with names and were trying to capture or kill the only people documenting the brutal siege of Mariupol. – Mstyslav Chernov, journalist of Associated Press, rescued by Ukrainian forces from Mariupol
The count of Ukrainians killed by enemy fire does not tell the full story of the loss of life and health as a result of the Russian War on Ukraine. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), said the devastating health consequences of the war will reverberate for years or decades to come. Ukraine’s health services have been severely disrupted by the widespread destruction of water and sanitation infrastructure – and increasingly, health facilities. The WHO chief said that the disruption to medical services and supplies is posing an “extreme” risk to people with cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, HIV and—among the leading causes of mortality in Ukraine. At the same time, displacement, poor shelter and overcrowded living conditions are likely to increase the risk of measles, pneumonia and polio. The war is also exacerbating the impact of COVID-19, with a decline in testing likely leading to “significant undetected transmission”. These factors are exacerbated by food shortages and the resulting hunger and starvation issues. It's anticipated that the number of deaths from secondary causes related to the war will surpass the number of Ukrainians killed by shelling, shooting, and bombing of their homes.
March 18: Russian missiles have struck an aircraft repair plant in Ukraine’s western city of Lviv, 50 miles from the border with Poland. The Ukrainian air force said the aircraft repair plant was struck by cruise missiles fired from the direction of the Black Sea. Lviv, a Unesco world heritage site, had been largely untouched by Russian bombing until Friday, although many of its 700,000 inhabitants had feared an attack was a matter of time. Here, thousands of displaced people seeking shelter arrive every day at the railway station from eastern cities razed to the ground by airstrikes. There are at least 200,000 internally displaced people in Lviv, stretching the city’s capacity to its limits.
The UK Minister of Defense reports that Russian ground forces have made minimal progress this past week. Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities. The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain encircled and subject to heavy Russian shelling.
More than 450 civilians were reportedly killed or injured in the first 11 days of the war, in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, as a result of Russian airstrikes and artillery shelling of populated areas, Human Rights Watch said . The attacks damaged civilian buildings, including apartment blocks, schools, places of worship, and shops, impeding access to food and medicines. They also damaged infrastructure in the city causing civilians to lose vital services such as electricity, heat, and water. Human Rights Watch identified Russian use of cluster munitions and explosive weapons with wide-area effect in heavily populated areas in Kharkiv, in apparent indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks. Indiscriminate shelling in heavily populated areas violates international humanitarian law and may constitute a war crime
March 17: Russian servicemen fired artillery at the town of Merefa in the Kharkiv region in the northeast of Ukraine, as a result of which a secondary school and a city house of culture were destroyed. 21 people died. 25 people were injured, 10 of them are in critical condition. Work to clear the debris continues.
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv claimed that Russian forces had shot and killed 10 people queuing up for bread in Chernihiv, though it provided no evidence. Videos were later posted by others on social media showing the purported aftermath.
Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, later reported that Russian forces had released Melitopol's mayor Ivan Fedorov. The regional drama theater in Mariupol sheltering around 1,000 civilians was later bombed during the day
The Yavoriv military base attack was attacked. The base is located near the city of Yavoriv, west of Lviv and close to the border with Poland. According to Ukrainian officials, the military facility was hit by 30 Russian missiles, killing 35 soldiers and injuring 134 others. The Russian Ministry of Defence announced that it had destroyed "up to 180 foreign mercenaries and a large consignment of foreign weapons" and said that Russia would continue attacks on foreign fighters in Ukraine; the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence said that it had not confirmed any foreigners among the dead. On 17 March, a German volunteer survivor of the attack, told the Austrian Newspaper Heute that at least 100 Foreign volunteers were present at the moment one of the buildings was destroyed, there were no survivors.
Russia continues to launch missile and bomb strikes on civilian infrastructure in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Dnipropetrovsk and other areas where there is no active ground hostilities and no Ukrainian military forces. The reasoning may be to force Ukraine to disperse some of their forces away from key cities such as Kyiv, Odessa, and Kharkiv.
Fighting for Kyiv has intensified, with artillery fire echoing through the city. Russia launched a flurry of strikes that early Tuesday blew out windows and ignited a huge fire in a 15-story apartment building apartment in western Kyiv, spurring a frantic rescue effort. Zelenskyy said barrages also hit four multi-story buildings, killing dozens of people. Explosions around the city caused significant structural damage, with shockwaves from a blast tearing through the entrance of a downtown subway station that residents have used as a bomb shelter.
Civilian death toll two times bigger than military casualties. Ukraine’s civilian death toll far exceeds the military casualties. “As the Russian troops suffered massive losses, they started a terrorist war. They act like criminals and cowards. They kill civilians, women and children, and take them hostage,” Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said.
THE BATTLEFRONTS
The War in Ukraine now encompasses several regions of the country. Russia's major ground assaults continue to focus on urban areas in the North, East, and South and especially on the capital city of Kyiv. Aerial bombings continue to increase in both urban and rural areas throughout the entire country.
Click An Area Below For Information on Regional Battlegrounds.
ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF THE STATUS AND CAUSES OF THE WAR
In the early days of the war, Russia clung to the narrative that they were not launching a full -scale invasion and were only attempting to aid Russian separatists operating in the Donbas region within Ukraine (along the border with Russia.)
Russian sources now admit (to the outside world) that they are attacking Ukraine from the north, east, and south with the intent of destroying the government of Ukraine and the major cities of Ukraine. They also claim that they are ridding Ukraine of it's Nazis, and restoring order and eliminating corruption in Ukraine.
Russia now claims to control a much larger area than Ukrainian( and other global sources) indicate.
"The Ukrainian leadership has fully lost control of the state of affairs in its own country, is insolvent and unable to deal with any issues because it is under the tough influence of radicals who are actually the parallel power that does not recognize any laws,"
In the map above, the areas in Red are purported to be areas Russia has conquered thus far and the areas in with red slash marks are areas Russia has a strong military presence and is on the verge of conquering.
The story Putin tells to Russians is quite different to the story he tells to the outside world. Putin has blocked outside news from reaching the citizens of Russia. The state-controlled Russian media is:
not reporting on the full scale of the war;
not reporting the death and destruction of Ukrainian people and Ukrainian cities;
not reporting the death and destruction of Russian soldiers and military equipment;
not reporting on it's desire to overthrow the elected government of Ukraine and install leaders who are more aligned with Russian aims.
Many within Russia still believe that their soldiers are involved in training exercises or are only battling to free the Russians living in the Donbas region of Ukraine along the Russian border.
Putin continues to stress that Moscow had no plans of occupying Ukrainian territories and the operation was aimed at demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine. However, Russia now occupies and controls several locations, especially in the southeastern region of the Ukraine.
When clarifying the developments unfolding, the Russian Defense Ministry reassured that Russian troops are not targeting Ukrainian cities, but are limited to surgically striking and incapacitating Ukrainian military infrastructure. There are no threats whatsoever to the civilian population.
While the war rages, on the Russian narrative of whether or not they invaded Ukraine, why they invaded Ukraine, why Ukraine is run by Nazi's, etc. continues to shift from day to day and week to week.
But Russia has it's supporters in Russia, in Syria, in China, and in some of the former Soviet states. Russia and Putin also have supporters here in the United States. A few American's believe that NATO (and America) are to blame for this war and for the death and destruction. They claim that Ukraine should have yielded to Putin's demands and signed a document declaring that Ukraine would never join NATO or use NATO resources to defend itself. In exchange, Putin would agree not to attack and destroy Ukraine unless circumstances deemed it necessary for the protection of Russia and Russian interests.
American political scientist John Mearsheimer has been one of the most famous critics of American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. Mearsheimer is a proponent of great-power politics—a school of realist international relations that assumes that, in a self-interested attempt to preserve national security, states will preëmptively act in anticipation of adversaries. For years, Mearsheimer has argued that the U.S., in pushing to expand NATO eastward and establishing friendly relations with Ukraine, has increased the likelihood of war between nuclear-armed powers and laid the groundwork for Vladimir Putin’s aggressive position toward Ukraine. Indeed, in 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea, Mearsheimer wrote that “the United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for this crisis.”
One of the more outspoken critics of NATO (and Ukraine) has been former GOP Senator Ron Paul and other members of his Ron Pal Institute.
On February 25, 2022 (Day Two of the Russian War on Ukraine), Daniel Mcadams, Executive Director of the Ron Paul Instititute issued the following status report on the war:
"The chips are down, as much of the US-equipped and backed Ukrainian military appears to have turned and ran as Russian forces approached. That is not to say that there has not been death and destruction on both sides. The battle for Kherson was brutal, with plenty of Russian losses. But nevertheless, as of this writing, it has fallen to Russian control. Kiev in the main may well fall within the next 12-24 hours. Russian troops are already in the city. And Zelensky is in his bunker with fewer and fewer to take his calls. ......."
Here's a quote from a March 16, 2022 article by Tom Mullen which was published on the Ron Paul Institute website:
"Vladimir Putin has shown tremendous restraint while watching NATO’s long march eastward towards his borders. The U.S. government has dismissed his concerns as those of the leader of a “secondary power.” His last diplomatic effort was made in late 2021, asking for what any objective observer would describe as very reasonable assurances..."
Sophia Square in Kyiv, the capital city of Ukraine (prior to the Russian Invasion)